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Future retail price/release date betting game
http://forum.diyefi.org/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=46
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Author:  Fred [ Sat Feb 09, 2008 12:09 am ]
Post subject:  Future retail price/release date betting game

Foreword : I had a number of members complain that this post seemed to say the wrong thing. I would like to make it clear what I intend it to say and do. Since I started following DIY EFI stuff a number of years ago I've watched various projects come and go. Particularly I've seen the MS2 card be promised and then be delayed and delayed and delayed after reading that it "would be ready soon". Understandably (I think) I found these delays extremely disappointing as I had swallowed the bait hook line and sinker and was really looking forward to it coming out. Delays with design and manufacture are common and this is somewhat understandable. Had this been an isolated occurrence I'd never have thought anything of it. Instead this has been repeated on virtually everything that has been brought out by the guys at msefi. Therefore the intent of this post/thread is two-fold, A) if they read it, it should serve as a wakeup call to focus on ONE project at a time and to do a good job of that before moving on, B) if their users/readers come here and read it for them to see the truth behind some of these projects such that they don't spend excessive time waiting for it.

The moral of the story is this : If you need an EFI solution, buy something that is available NOW. Do NOT wait for stuff that is "coming out soon" because that wait will very likely be somewhat longer than you anticipate it to be. Alternatively if you are suitably skilled, design and build one yourself. That is in effect what we are doing here. I will not and can not wait for MS3 to come out, and when it does, the cost-benefit analysis will most likely not look very good. What the DIY EFI community really needs is something as affordable as an MS2/V3.0 kit and as good as some of the sequential commercial units out there hardware wise. This IS achievable, but It is unlikely to happen from the guys at msefi. Hence we are here to "save the day".

The post as it was, unchanged :

Hi, as we all know, over on the far away board "msefi" there are some new products on the horizon. I thought it would be fun to do some betting on how much the will retail for when released and when exactly that will be.

As a bit of history, the following SMD products prices are shown :

"MicroSquirt" : $$$$400US
"MS2 on 3.57" : $$$$$450US
"MS1 on 3.57" : $$$$350US

Place your bets on the following future products :

"The GPIO Board"
Background : The first post in the gpio forum is an update from Jan 06 that says "we will move to a beta board fairly quickly (~two months from now)". Currently there are three existing code lines to support this board and it is not being released because this.
Fred : $$150US, end of April(maybe)
PGTFE3T : $$200US

"The MS Sequencer"
Background : This one is relatively recent and has been somewhat rushed through.
Fred : $$$$$$600US, end of July 2008
KW1252 : $$$$$500US, mid 2009
PGTFE3T : $$$$350US

"The Router Board"
Background : Apparently we will see this shortly after the Sequencer.
Fred : $$$$350US, end of December 2008
PGTFE3T : $$$250US

"MS3"
Background : Read about it starting on December 06 here.
Fred : $$$$$$$700US, end of May 2009
KW1252 : $$$$$500US, 2012+
PGTFE3T : $$$$$500US

"Precision Wideband Controller"
Background : Copyright notice on the board in this photo says 2003 the date on a similar photo is 2001
Fred : $$200US, end of December 2017
PGTFE3T : $$$285US

"UltraMegaSquirt"
Background : First mentioned some 4 years ago or so, the latest update from this link on 2 March 2006 is "The path of UltraMegaSquirt will be driven significantly by the router board." and "So by completing the router board we are significantly closer to UMS." Before that from here we have "As of May 2004, Al is working on software and is testing specific circuits of the UMS I/O." which is followed by this photo of the pwc dated 10.4.2001. The wayback machine shows that the page went up in 04. From that archive "The MC9S12A256 is a totally awesome processor.", whereas the current page says "UltraMegaSquirt uses the MCF5234 processor" I'm left wondering what it is going to be. From motorolas page we have "AUSTIN, Texas - May 17, 2004 - Freescale Semiconductor, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Motorola, Inc. (NYSE:MOT), has unveiled four new ColdFire® families" which indicates that it definitely will not be based on that core at all.
Bets :
Fred : $$$$$$$$800US, 29 of February, 2023 (if that's a leap year, and the next one that after that if not)
KW1252 : Never as currently intended
PGTFE3T : $$$$$$$$$$1000US

FreeEMS :
KW1252 : $$200 - $$$300 US application and configuration dependent
ababkin : PRICELESS!

It should be noted that a basic XEP100 board can be had for $80US, and that the chips themselves cost about $10US each when bought commercially by a business in quantity. Board printing costs are around the $10 - $100US mark depending on the features and quality etc when manufactured in bulk. I have no idea what assembly costs on an auto line, but that should be left up to me and you anyway. Or at least the option for that should be present. The other components on the board barely register, except the power FETs at around $1.5US - $3US each and the ignition chips at around double that.

If you have any products that are in the planning stage that you would like to add, feel free to post them up. You can put FreeEMS up if you like, but I won't be taking public punts on when that will run its first engine. You on the other hand are welcome to.

I'll add your guesses and additions to the list as you post them.

Fred.

Author:  KW1252 [ Sat Feb 09, 2008 12:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Future retail price/release date betting game

My guesses... I'd think MS3 might be out in 2012+, and cost perhaps around 500USD

Ultra megasquirt, this thing might break into a modular kit and won't be available as one single unit.


Sequencer board, I'm thinking of mid-2009 and 500USD...

FreeEMS, now that would be interesting to guess :) With the adapter board it will inevitably cost a few hundred USD, but even with small batch manufacturing, it'd be considerably cheaper.

Author:  PGTFE3T [ Sun Feb 10, 2008 4:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Future retail price/release date betting game

"The GPIO Board"
$200US

"The MS Sequencer"
$350US

"The Router Board"
$250US

"MS3"
$500US

"Precision Wideband Controller"
$285US

"UltraMegaSquirt"
$$1000US

Author:  Fred [ Sun Feb 10, 2008 5:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Future retail price/release date betting game

I've added a foreword to the first post to explain what I intended with for this thread to achieve (other than a bit of light hearted fun). The "background" sections were there because some people wouldn't have any idea about the history of these products.

Fred.

Author:  ababkin [ Mon Feb 11, 2008 9:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Future retail price/release date betting game

PGTFE3T wrote:
"The GPIO Board"
$200US

"The MS Sequencer"
$350US

"The Router Board"
$250US

"MS3"
$500US

"Precision Wideband Controller"
$285US

"UltraMegaSquirt"
$$1000US


making your own EMS, which you understand all the ins and outs of and are free to do anything you wish with it ...

... PRICELESS!

(sorry, couldn't resist ;) )

Author:  Fred [ Tue Feb 12, 2008 12:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Future retail price/release date betting game

LOL, I must be honest, I hadn't considered that! :-) I like it, it's added to the list.

Fred.

Author:  Fred [ Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Future retail price/release date betting game

muythaibxr wrote:
I noticed the schematic says that you're using 2 of the C32 chips? IS that a typo?

Bruce wrote:
No - the second C32 is the router section - its a two-chip setup.

Quote:
The two-chip setup right now is for us to take advantage of the huge stockpile of C32 chips we have on hand.

Speechless, as is Ken by the sound of it :-|

I guess it would be unfair of me to move my dates forward again?

Also, see the daily wtf thread here.

Author:  Fred [ Thu May 01, 2008 9:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Future retail price/release date betting game

As it turned out, the sequencer has two C64 chips which makes some sense. It was Bruce's typo saying C32.

In other news, my "end of April maybe" guess for GPIO seems to have been somewhat optimistic as it is still not here :-(

Because working on one thing means the next is delayed, probably all of my guesses will be somewhat wrong now.

I propose that the error in your guess for a later product has the error from an earlier one subtracted from it to reflect the proportion of dev time spent on each.

In other news, to aid development presumably, new sites have been created here :

http://www.msgpio.com/forums/index.php and here :

http://www.ms3efi.com/index.php

For ms3 and gpio respectively.

I want UMS / UltraMegaSquirt NOW! :-(

Fred.

Author:  Fred [ Thu May 08, 2008 11:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Future retail price/release date betting game

Quote:
There are some other components that are being evaluated for ignition inputs, injector drivers, etc that are SMD only pieces as well without equivalents in thru-hole. Not to mention the sheer feature set that the user community is requesting (and we're trying to accommodate as much as is feasible without running cost through the roof) will take significant space even on a multi-layer SMD board. Trying to do this on a thru hole board could create a pizza box... So yes, it's heavily leaning towards the core guts being SMD. I'd still like to see some expandability on the board in the form of unpopulated headers that a daughterboard could be snapped onto (thru-hole or SMD) but that's still being weighed out for feasibility.


I guess this means it's quite a way off at the moment. I wonder how far this will push back UMS / UltraMegaSquirt ?

Author:  Fred [ Tue May 13, 2008 4:58 pm ]
Post subject:  MegaSquirt UltraMegaSquirt UMS Ultra MegaSquirt?

Look at that! :

http://forums.turbobricks.com/archive/i ... t-794.html

"thank god we didnt order our megasquirt yet" 7/2003 !!!

Poor bugger.

"I have been thinking of waiting for the UltraMegaSquirt as it also gives ignition control. What do you think?" I think don't wait!

http://www.rx7club.com/showthread.php?t=211536

It seems that people in 2003 wanted UMS / UltraMegasquirt for two things : ignition control and wideband

http://grassrootsmotorsports.com/board/ ... hp?id=2441

"UMS is a long way away - I'd call it vaporware at this point, and even when it does get up and running it will probably have a lot of bugs that need to be ironed out."

50 dollar lunch box was onto it back in 04 :-)

And yet in 2008 this page is still up :

http://www.megamanual.com/UMS.htm

"Work is currently moving forward at full speed on UltraMegaSquirt, however an announcement on UMS availability is not imminent."

"not imminent" they sure got that right! "full speed you say" 2400 bps modem is full speed?

Point 5 : 12x12 tables :-) we bit behind the ball on that.

Point 11 : "Cost: The cost is just a little more than the MegaSquirt® setup. The AmpSeal connector is quite expensive (~$20.00) but the other components are roughly the same cost as the current MegaSquirt® equivalents."

Sweet, I guess this means that MS3 will fall in between MS1 and UMS for price then :-) I sure hope so!

Fred.

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